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Identifying drivers of change and predicting a utopic or distopic future. What will your future look like?

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future scenario 1: a distopic Hong kong: hyper increased population affecting pollution and climate change

Scenario Building: Backcasting

Week 4 tutorial

 

Emerging issues analysis

  • Identifies and locates trends that may motivate new social innovation
  • Seeks to identify issues before they become unwieldy and expansive (inaytallyah)

 

The futures wheels

  • Consequences of those issues — develops consequences of today’s issue into the longer term future
  • Expense of equity

 

Casual layered analysis

  • Four dimensions:
  1. Solutions to problems are short term
  2. Deeper analysis of the issue looking at steep cause
  3. Culture or worldview – what we think is real or not real, the cognitive lenses we use to understand the world
  4. Myth or the metaphor — deep unconscious story

Hierachy – flip heirachy to achieve change

 

Scenario Consultation:

  • Hong Kong
  • Overpopulation in 50 years from now
  • Considering how the mega city will be powered, transportation, climate levels,
  • Need a more efficient or sustainable energy in the future — climate change
  • Individual energy supplier — regulate real time feedback
  • Need to consider other cities as hong kong is already dense so in the future its only going to become denser and its not like we can knock everything down to build more
  • Installation of digital technology — energy cloud?
  • Need to address more renewable power sources as carbon emissions are too high — fossil fuels 80% of our source
  • green house emissions
  • Solution for the future for climate change and energy is we need a combination of resources not just one, but lots of different ones — nuclear
  • Possibilities of heat island — the possibilties of is endless as it would
  • Transportation issue — people would begin working from home — online instead of travelling to a workplace
  • International
  • Geographical location –
  • Wealthy have an advantage?
  • Demographics and afforability
  • How does architecture and elements
  • Summary- understanding the overpopulation and over crowding hong kong in 2050, understanding that this is a distopic future. As a result of this overpopulation, pollution has grown, technology has advanced drastically

 

Backcasting

 

1954 Miranda
  • Since 1842, Hong Kong had been playing the triple roles of a British colony, a Chinese community, and a regional (even global) city. Al- though under British colonial rule, it was inhabited largely by Chinese immigrants who maintained close cultural, economic and political ties with the mainland and strong business networks in Southeast Asia. Taking advantage of its capitalist and legal systems, Chinese merchants, workers, revolutionaries and reformers came to the Colony to seek better economic opportunities or to further their political causes.
  • In December 1953, however, a squatter fire in Shek Kip Mei propelled the Hong Kong government to find a lasting solution to the problem of squatters, the majority of whom were refugees. With more than 50,000 persons being made homeless, the government decided in 1954 to relocate all squatters in multi-storey resettlement estates. Due to the shortage of land and the difficulty of attracting sufficient private capital, the government had to use public funds to build permanent six storey buildings for a large number of squatters.
  • While some areas are obvious, like The Peak and the Clock Tower, others are barely recognisable, with streets and neighbourhoods that look worlds apart from today’s bustling megacity jam-packed with skyscrapers.
  • Historic building (the original eight-storey water-fronted Luk Kwok Hotel, in Wan Chai) fell victim to the bulldozers – demolished and replaced with the modern, high-rise Luk Kwok Hotel.
  • All the new buildings are just part of progress.
  • By the mid-1950s, Hong Kong had increased its population to a staggering 2.2 million. By 1956, Hong Kong’s population density became one of the highest in the world.

https://www-jstor-org.ezproxy.lib.uts.edu.au/stable/4499816?Search=yes&resultItemClick=true&searchText=Hong&searchText=Kong&searchText=1958&searchUri=%2Faction%2FdoBasicSearch%3FQuery%3DHong%2BKong%2B1958&refreqid=search%3Af4c8e19ff5fa617925fafcadb009dad4&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
Sum-up:

Many people immigrated to Hong Kong because of China’s revolution. There were ordinary people and many rich people, especially some entrepreneurs in Shanghai who fled to Hong Kong. They have money and experience in doing business, so they started to open factories in Hong Kong. At that time, the urban characteristics of Hong Kong completely changed. (‘world factory’)

The society was rich and poor, the poor were many, the places were small. The entire society is still relatively turbulent.

Started to have multi-storey buildings.

1958 Miranda
  • From late 1956 onwards, British colonial officials spoke of the postwar influx of Chinese refugees from the mainland to Hong Kong as a ‘problem of people’, with serious consequences on housing, social services and even political relations.
  • In 1958 three British private citizens came up with the idea of a ‘world refugee year’, an idea which was later endorsed by the British government.
1962 Miranda
  • The per capita GDP was still relatively low in 1960.
  • By the early 196os it became all too apparent Hong  Kong government that the only solution to the ‘problem of people’ was not overseas emigration but local integration.
  • Hong Kong’s population in the 1960s is estimated at 3 million. Half of the population was under the age of 25 and the group became Hong Kong’s baby boom generation. The surge of refugees continued to come in from China.
  • gives parallel views of a city that has grown exponentially

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/hong-kong-50-years-ago-and-today-2014-9?r=US&IR=T

1966 Miranda
  • The main source of water in Hong Kong was China. A contract was signed in 1964 when Hong Kong purchased 15,000 gallons of water a day drawn from China’s East river.
  • The government pursued an ambitious public education programme, creating over 300,000 new primary school places between 1954 and 1961. By 1966, 99.8% of school-age children were attending primary school, though the primary schools were not free.
  • The arrival of broadcast television would become the first format brewed in Hong Kong to be marketed toward the people of Hong Kong] directly. TVB station was founded in 1967 and made the first free-over-the-air broadcast.

Sum-up:

In the 1960s, Hong Kong society was rapidly changing. The foreign trade and the urban economy were leaping forward. The total population was rapidly expanding. The government did not manage the resources to cope with this sudden change.

1970 Daisy Rents in Hong Kong have skyrocketed and the government announced an interim freeze bill on rents;

Establish of Legal Aid Department, it provides legal aid in legal representation for Hong Kong citizen;

The Hong Kong government introduced six years of free compulsory education.

1974 Daisy Chinese became an official language with the same legal effect and status as English;

the Independent Commission Against Corruption was established;

the Hong Kong Consumer Council was established.

1978 Daisy Institution of The Home Ownership Scheme, it is a subsidized-sale programme of public housing in Hong Kong managed by the Hong Kong Housing Authority;

Cancellation of Hong Kong Secondary School Entrance Examination.

1982 Daisy 1982 Hong Kong District Board elections, were the first ever local elections under the new creation of 18 district boards;

The new section of Tsuen Wan line (metro network in Hong Kong’s MTR) opened on 10 May 1982;

1986 Annie
  • The Hong Kong (British Nationality) order 1986 – ever since hong kong became a british colony in 1842 – This new category was available only to Hong Kong BDTCs, and any Hong Kong BDTC who wished to do so would be able to acquire the status of BN(O). The status was non-transferable and available only by application, and the deadline to apply was 31 December 1997. Any hong kong BDTCs who failed as a BN(O) would be rendered stateless because of their inability to acquire a chinese nationality, so this order automatically makes them a British overseas citizen.
  • Sir Edward Youde ended his job as governor of hong kong or a british administrator on the 5 december 1986
1990 annie July 9, 1992: Conservative British politician Chris Patten takes up his post as Hong Kong’s last governor. 1992 December – Hong Kong stock market crashes.
1994 annie 1994 June – After nearly two years of bitter wrangling, Hong Kong’s legislature introduces a stripped-down version of Chris Patten’s democratic reform package. The new legislation widens the franchise but falls far short of providing for universal suffrage.
1998 Annie Hong Kong was under British rule for 156 years before reverting to Chinese sovereignty on July 1, 1997. Since then, July 1 has turned into a day of protest for those demanding greater political freedom in Hong Kong.

  • September 26, 1997: China and the UK agree on arrangements for the handover ceremony.
  • – February 23, 1997: Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress in Beijing votes to repeal or amend various laws regarding civil liberties in Hong Kong.
  • – June 30, 1997: The British flag is lowered and the Hong Kong and Chinese flags raised at midnight to signal Hong Kong’s return to Chinese sovereignty after 156 years of British rule, becoming a Special Administrative Regun (SAR) of China.
  • – July 1, 1997: More than 4,000 troops from China’s People’s Liberation Army cross the border into Hong Kong in the early hours of the morning. Chief Executive, Tung Chee-hwa, and the Provisional Legislative Council, are sworn in later in the day.
  • Outbreak of the asian financial crisis in 1997
  • One country two systems policy – meaning the use of a capitalist system for hong kong and taiwan and a socialist system for the rest of mainland china to solve each states problems.

 

http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/dengxiaoping/103372.htm#

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-Socialism-and-Capitalism-Why-do-they-fight-with-each-other

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/timeline-key-events-in-hong-kong-s-history

2002 liv
2006 liv
2010 liv
2014 liv
2018
Made up scenario from this point onwards
Hong Kong real estate market:

  • HK has long ranked among the world’s most expensive due to inadequate land supply, robust speculation, demand from mainland Chinese buyers and years of enticingly low interest rates. The government’s solution is to weigh a tax on vacant apartments.
  • It is expected that the growth of the residential market will continue, and investors remain cautiously optimistic about office buildings
  • Population at 7.6 million
  • Stem cell research/treatment in biotechnology for alzheimer’s and parkinson’s disease initialised
  • One country two system policy — hong kong is a capitalist system and mainland china is a socialist system (conflict between whether or not this system or state will remain in the future or a worry as to whether this will continue to work in the future) what systems are they going to use in the future?
2022
  • Population growing to the 7.8 million
  • Technological advancements in transportation, new light rail travelling around city released
  • New streams in biotechnology, smart cities and artificial intelligence and financial technologies released — biotechnology research in creating life outside of a body — developing more artificial technology to aid manufacture and reduced manual labour in all areas such as manufacture, domestic and everyday
2026
  • Green initiative released as pollution levels begin to rise quicker due to the population rise in hong kong
2030
  • Recognition of hong kong land crisis and lacking of available space so first extreme high rise extension implemented in city scope in order to create more housing possibilities for people
2034
  • Online banking now only source of money available. No longer face to face banks
  • Biotechnology developments with first test tube baby born without a mother — however biotechnology is unable to maintain funding due to commercialised funding despite issues from the government. Fertility rates are dropping so whilst this area has been recognised as important is it no longer being funded
  • Rocket launch introduced as a reusable long distance of the original rockets they have been using in outer space — space exploration is growing
2038
  • Robotics are further developed, with more artificial intelligence being generated to assist in
2042
  • 8.3 million people population
  • China space program is rivaling nasa
  • Tobacco largely eradicated due to the air conditions worsening from factory and gas emissions
  • Economy rivaling the US’s
  • Average age is 46 and the working population has been declining
2046
  • Spice girls dead
  • Hello kitty murderer strikes again
2050
  • Population reaching 10 million due to more employment availabilities opening and a rise in popularity in city dwelling
  • Octopus card now developing squid card as a seamless microchip injection allowing cardless travel and cash, no longer a requirement to travel with wallet
  • Population control underway reverting to one child law as overpopulation is resulting in an increase in greenhouse gas initiative. Land outside of cities remains quite untouched due to a lack of work and housing

 

The future: QUESTIONS

What type of government are they going to have?

Predictions state a decline in working? Why? Is this because of a growth in technology or growth in population?

More pregnancy rates?

 

TASK 2 SLIDES

s1s2s3s4s5

 

 

WEEK 8 PROTOTYPING 

BRAINSTORM

Love in Hong Kong 2050

 

  • Child policy – suggesting lack of love or more of it? Fake ID
  • Cage housing suggests a lack of love for the poorer people
  • Environmental love – not loving the earth enough to prevent this poor pollution and climate change – loving technology more because we chose to pursue it more than earth and its natural resources
  • Technological love? A love for technology and building lots of technology – new tech inventions – love for communication and socialising with loved ones through new technology
  • Immigration and moving countries to be with loved ones
  • Love in general lol
  • Love for the human body to create oxygen tanks to care for the peopel within the buildings – ventilation systems and masks
  • Love of the city and people choosing to stay there despite its horrible climate and overcrowdedness- transport systems
  • Love for the city and respect for the law through use of contraception pills/ pods – love for yourself and ur future and the future of the city

WEEK 9 – HANDS ON PROTOTYPING ACTIVITY

Prototypes of the the oxygen bottles, cage house and hyper train